ABSTRACT
In this work we focus on the eradication of the COVID-19 infection with the help of almost Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs), using mathematical modelling. First the basic reproduction number
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 is a pandemic respiratory illness. The disease spreads from human to human and is caused by a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we formulate a mathematical model of COVID-19 and discuss the disease free state and endemic equilibrium of the model. Based on the sensitivity indexes of the parameters, control strategies are designed. The strategies reduce the densities of the infected classes but do not satisfy the criteria/threshold condition of the global stability of disease free equilibrium. On the other hand, the endemic equilibrium of the disease is globally asymptotically stable. Therefore it is concluded that the disease cannot be eradicated with present resources and the human population needs to learn how to live with corona. For validation of the results, numerical simulations are obtained using fourth order Runge-Kutta method.
ABSTRACT
This paper aims to explore the optimal control of the novel pandemic COVID-19 using non-clinical approach. We formulate a mathematical model to analyze the transmission of the infection through different human compartments. By applying a sensitivity test, we obtain the sensitivity indexes of the parameters involved in the transmission of the disease. We demonstrate the most active/sensitive parameters to analyze the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19. The most active transmission parameters are interposed by introducing control variables. The control intervention is in the form of smart lockdown, frequent handwash, control of the disease’s side effects, face mask, and sanitizer. We Formulate Hamilton and Lagrangian to investigate the existence of the optimal control. Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle describes the control variables in the optimal control model. The objective function is designed to reduce both the infection and the cost of interventions. We use numerical simulation to verify the results of the control variables by Matlab 2019.
ABSTRACT
This article focus the elimination and control of the infection caused by COVID-19. Mathematical model of the disease is formulated. With help of sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number the most sensitive parameters regarding transmission of infection are found. Consequently strategies for the control of infection are proposed. Threshold condition for global stability of the disease free state is investigated. Finally, using Matlab numerical simulations are produced for validation of theocratical results.
ABSTRACT
In this work we focus on the eradication of the COVID-19 infection with the help of almost Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs), using mathematical modelling. First the basic reproduction number R 0 is investigated. Then, on the basis of sensitivity test of R 0 , the most active/sensitive parameters are presented in detail. Non Pharmaceutical Interventions(NPIs) are applied to control the sensitive parameters. The major NPIs are, stay home (isolation), sanitizers (wash hands), Treatment of side effects of infection, like throat infection etc and face mask. These NPIs helps in mitigation and reducing the size of outbreak of the disease. Threshold condition for global stability of the disease free state is investigated.The NPI's are used in different ratios to formulate a strategy. The results of these strategies are validated using Matlab software.